Climate change exacerbates the threat of water scarcity over the drylands in East Asia (DEA), the world's most densely populated arid region. The water cycle continuously supplies water to support all life. Previous studies have focused on the change in individual hydrological components over DEA; however, how the projected water cycle changes under climate warming remains unclear. We demonstrate the projected response of the water cycle to global warming in different seasons utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Winter in the DEA presents an intensification of the water cycle, reflected in coherent increases in evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff, and surface soil moisture. In contrast, summer will experience a weakened water cycle in the northwestern DEA, while the southeastern part exhibits the opposite trend. From the surface and atmospheric water balance perspective, we further attribute the changes in E and P to gain a more comprehensive understanding. The increasing E is attributed to the combined effects of P and the vapor pressure deficit during summer, whereas it is dominated by P in winter. The increased P in summer is primarily attributed to the horizontal dynamic and vertical thermodynamic components associated with the strengthening and westward expansion of East Asia summer monsoon in the future. During winter, the increased P is mainly due to the vertical dynamic and horizontal thermodynamic components associated with the enhancement of vertical ascending motion and increased moisture. Water scarcity threatens 1-2 billion people living in drylands worldwide, with drylands in East Asia (DEA) having the largest population. Future climate change can alter the availability of water resources by altering the water cycle. Therefore, analyzing the water cycle's response to global warming during both summer and winter is vital for water management and climate adaptation, particularly in DEA. Under a high-emissions scenario, winter will experience an intensified water cycle, manifested as coherent increases in evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff, and surface soil moisture. In summer, a weakened water cycle is anticipated in northwestern DEA, while southeastern DEA is expected to show the opposite trend. Furthermore, we offer a quantitative attribution of the response of E and P to global warming to gain a more profound understanding. The attribution of E indicates that the supply of energy and water commonly dominate the increase in E during summer. The attribution of P illustrates that the westward expansion of the monsoon with enhanced southeastern winds favors increased P during summer. In winter, strengthened vertical ascending motions and increased water vapor content provide favorable conditions for enhancing P. Water cycle intensification is accompanied by more frequent extreme events, necessitating increased attention. Future global warming will intensify the water cycle of drylands in East Asia in winter During summer, evapotranspiration will increase due to precipitation and vapor pressure deficit; in winter, it is dominated by the former In winter and summer, the dominant roles of the dynamic and thermodynamic components influencing future precipitation are different
