Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning

被引：3

作者：

Hadjisotiriou, Sophie ^{[1
]}

Marchau, Vincent ^{[2
]}

Walker, Warren ^{[3
]}

Rikkert, Marcel Olde ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Radboud UMC, Fac Med Sci, Reinier Postlaan 4, NL-6525 GC Nijmegen, Netherlands

[2] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Inst Management Res, POB 9108, NL-6500 HK Nijmegen, Netherlands

[3] Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, POB 5015, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands

来源：

HEALTH POLICY | 2023年 / 133卷

关键词：

COVID-19; Uncertainty; Policymaking; Reliable organizations; Systems analysis;

D O I：

10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104831

中图分类号：

R19 [保健组织与事业（卫生事业管理）];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, policymakers are confronted with what policy analysts call Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on 'prepare, monitor, and adapt', enabling policy adaptations over time as events occur and knowledge is gained. We discuss the potential of a DMDU-approach for pandemic decisionmaking.

引用

页数：4

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