Three-year change in refractive error and its risk factors: results from the Shahroud School Children Eye Cohort Study

Objectives To determine spherical equivalent (SE) progression among children in the Shahroud School Children Eye Cohort Study. Methods A prospective cohort study recruited children aged 6 to 12 years in 2015 (baseline) with a follow-up in 2018. Cycloplegic autorefraction and axial length (AL) measurements were included. SE progression over 3 years was analysed in non-myopic (SE >= + 0.76 D), pre-myopic (PM; SE between +0.75 D and -0.49 D), low myopic (LM; SE between -0.5 D and -5.99 D), and high myopic (HM; SE <= - 6 D) eyes. Age, sex, near work, outdoor time, living place, parental myopia, mother's education, and baseline SE were evaluated as risk factors for SE progression (<= -0.50 D). Results Data were available for 3989 children (7945 eyes). At baseline, 40.3% (n = 3205), 3.4% (n = 274) and 0.1% (n = 7) eyes had PM, LM and HM, respectively. At the 3-year follow-up, 40.5% (n = 3216), 7.5% (n = 599) and 0.2% (n = 15) eyes had PM, LM, and HM, respectively. SE progression in eyes with LM and HM was -1.08 +/- 0.76 D and -1.60 +/- 1.19 D, respectively. SE progression was associated with age at baseline (Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.21), female sex (OR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.48-2.18), near work (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14), parental myopia (OR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.01-1.42) and baseline SE (OR = 2.28; 95% CI: 1.88-2.78). Conclusion A myopic shift was associated with older age, female sex, near work, parental myopia and greater myopic baseline SE. These results help identifying children at risk of progression that may benefit from treatment and lifestyle counselling.