Assessing the impact of incentive coordination effect on the equilibrium of agricultural water usage by China's South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project

In recent years, the sustainable development of agricultural water resources has received much attention. The mismatch between agricultural water distribution patterns, land resources, and socioeconomics threatens food production, especially in vast water-scarce plains. Therefore, monitoring agricultural water spatial equilibrium (AWRSE) is necessary. Based on equilibrium theory and information entropy, in this study, the AWRSE evaluation model is constructed from three aspects: agricultural water resources, land resources, and socioeconomics. In addition, the relationship between social factors with cropping pattern as the primary explanatory variable and AWRSE was examined in conjunction with the extended STIRPAT model and applied to the water-receiving area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MR-SNWDP). The results show that compared with the pre-diversion period, the AWRSE of 75% of the water-receiving cities has been significantly improved by the MR-SNWTP water supply. The MK test z value of the overall regional AWRSE has changed from - 0.328 to - 2.65, and the AWRSE development has shifted from not significantly better to significantly better. The cropping pattern shows a positive response to this development, and this effect can be mitigated in the late stage of water transfer; when the proportion of food crop cultivation increases by 1%, the sub-regional AWRSE value will increase by 0.347%. The evaluation model demonstrates a broad range of inclusiveness and application potential; it provides novel insights for examining agroecological, social, and economic stability.