Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020-2040

被引:1
|
作者
Brenner, Darren R. [1 ]
Carbonell, Chantelle [1 ]
O'Sullivan, Dylan E. [1 ]
Ruan, Yibing [1 ]
Basmadjian, Robert B. [1 ]
Bu, Vickey [2 ]
Farah, Eliya [1 ]
Loewen, Shaun K. [3 ]
Bond, Tara R. [4 ]
Estey, Angela [4 ]
Pujadas Botey, Anna [4 ,5 ]
Robson, Paula J. [2 ,4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calgary, Dept Oncol, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada
[2] Alberta Hlth Serv, Canc Res & Analyt Canc Care Alberta, Edmonton, AB T5J 3H1, Canada
[3] Univ Calgary, Tom Baker Canc Ctr, Div Radiat Oncol, Calgary, AB T2N 4N2, Canada
[4] Alberta Hlth Serv, Canc Strat Clin Network, Calgary, AB T2S 3C3, Canada
[5] Univ Alberta, Sch Publ Hlth, Edmonton, AB T6G 1C9, Canada
关键词
cancer; Canada; projections; trends; cancer incidence; cancer prevalence; cancer mortality; cancer survival; cancer management costs; CANADA; PREVALENCE;
D O I
10.3390/curroncol30110725
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998-2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000-2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment.
引用
收藏
页码:9981 / 9995
页数:15
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