A Simple Model of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations

The literature on the fall of civilizations spans from the archaeology of early state societies to the history of the 20th century. Explanations for the fall of civilizations abound, from general extrinsic causes (drought, warfare) to general intrinsic causes (intergroup competition, socioeconomic inequality, collapse of trade networks) and combinations of these, to case-specific explanations for the specific demise of early state societies. Here, we focus on ancient civilizations, which archaeologists typically define by a set of characteristics including hierarchical organization, standardization of specialized knowledge, occupation and technologies, and hierarchical exchange networks and settlements. We take a general approach, with a model suggesting that state societies arise and dissolve through the same processes of innovation. Drawing on the field of cumulative cultural evolution, we demonstrate a model that replicates the essence of a civilization's rise and fall, in which agents at various scales-individuals, households, specialist communities, polities-copy each other in an unbiased manner but with varying degrees of institutional memory, invention rate, and propensity to copy locally versus globally. The results, which produce an increasingly extreme hierarchy of success among agents, suggest that civilizations become increasingly vulnerable to even small increases in propensity to copy locally.