Estimation of the demand for palliative care in non-oncologic patients in Chile

Background Access to palliative care is an emerging global public health challenge. In Chile, a palliative care law was recently enacted to extend palliative care coverage to the non-oncologic population. Thus, a reliable and legitimate estimate of the demand for palliative care is needed for proper health policy planning. Objective To estimate the demand for Palliative Care in Chile. Methodology Diseases likely to require palliative care were identified according to literature and expert judgement. Annual deaths of diseases identified were estimated for the periods 2018-2020. Demand estimation corresponds to the identification of the proportion of deceased patients requiring palliative care based on the burden of severe health-related suffering. Finally, patient-years were estimated based on the expected survival adjustment. Results The estimated demand for palliative care varies between 25,650 and 21,679 patients depending on the approximation used. In terms of annual demand, this varies between 1,442 and 10,964 patient-years. The estimated need has a minor variation between 2018 and 2019 of 0.85% on average, while 2020 shows a slightly higher decrease (7.26%). Conclusion This is a replicable method for estimating the demand of palliative care in other jurisdictions. Future studies could approach the demand based on the decedent population and living one for a more precise estimation and better-informed health planning. It is hoped that our methodological approach will serve as an input for implementing the palliative care law in Chile, and as an example of estimating the demand for palliative care in other jurisdictions.