The incidence trends of oral cancers worldwide from 1988 to 2012 and the prediction up to 2030

被引：0
|
作者：
Lu, Dong-Ning [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Wan-Chen [1 ,2 ]
Lin, Yan-Ze [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Yi-Ning [1 ,2 ]
Shao, Cheng-Ying [1 ,2 ]
Zheng, Chuan-Ming [1 ,3 ]
Ge, Ming-Hua [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Xu, Jia-Jie [1 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Hangzhou Med Coll, Zhejiang Prov Peoples Hosp, Affiliated Peoples Hosp, Otolaryngol & Head & Neck Ctr,Canc Ctr,Dept Head &, Hangzhou 310014, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
[2] Zhejiang Chinese Med Univ, Clin Med Coll 2, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
[3] Key Lab Endocrine Gland Dis Zhejiang Prov, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
来源：
HEAD AND NECK-JOURNAL FOR THE SCIENCES AND SPECIALTIES OF THE HEAD AND NECK | 2023年 / 45卷 / 09期
关键词：
head and neck cancer; incidence rate; oral cancer; prediction; worldwide; NECK-CANCER; CIGARETTE-SMOKING; ALCOHOL-DRINKING; HEAD; POPULATION; CAVITY; EPIDEMIOLOGY; ADOLESCENTS; AUSTRALIA; SURVIVAL;
D O I：
10.1002/hed.27443
中图分类号：
R76 [耳鼻咽喉科学];
学科分类号：
100213 ;
摘要：
BackgroundThis paper aims to analyze the time trend of OCs incidence in 43 countries (1988-2012) and predict the incidence trend of OCs (2012-2030). MethodsIn the database for Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, the annual data on OCs incidence grouped by age and gender were obtained from 108 cancer registries in 43 countries. The age-standardized incidence rates were calculated, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the incidence in 2030. ResultsSouth Asia and Oceania had the highest ASR in 1988 (9.24/100 000) and 2012 (6.74/100 000). It was predicted that India, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Japan would be the countries with an increased incidence of OCs in 2030. ConclusionRegional custom is an important factor affecting the incidence of OCs. According to our predictions., it is necessary to control risk factors according to local conditions and enhance screening and education.
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收藏
页码：2394 / 2412
页数：19
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