Comparison of Machine Learning Model Performance based on Observation Methods using Naked-eye and Visibility-meter

In this study, we predicted the presence of fog with a one-hour delay using the XGBoost DART machine learning algorithm for Andong, which had the highest occurrence of fog among inland stations from 2016 to 2020. We used six datasets: meteorological data, agricultural observation data, additional derived data, and their expanded data. The weather phenomenon numbers obtained through naked-eye observations and the visibility distances measured by visibility meters were classified as fog [1] or no-fog [0]. We set up twelve machine learning modeling experiments and used data from 2021 for model validation. We mainly evaluated model performance using recall and AUC-ROC, considering the harmful effects of fog on society and local communities. The combination of oversampled meteorological data features and the target induced by weather phenomenon numbers showed the best performance. This result highlights the importance of naked-eye observations in predicting fog using machine learning algorithms.