Importance Recurrence is one of the most challenging adverse events after ventral hernia repair as it impacts quality of life, utilization of resources, and subsequent need for re-repair. Rates of recurrence range from 30% to 80% after ventral hernia repair. Objective To determine the contemporary ventral hernia recurrence rate over time in patients with previous hernia repair and to determine risk factors associated with recurrence. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective, population-based study used the Abdominal Core Health Quality Collaborative registry to evaluate year-over-year recurrence rates in patients with prior ventral hernia repair between January 2012 and August 2022. Patients who underwent at least 1 prior ventral hernia repair were included and categorized into 2 groups based on mesh or no-mesh use. There were 43 960 eligible patients; after exclusion criteria (patients with concurrent inguinal hernias as the primary diagnosis, nonstandard hernia procedure categories, American Society of Anesthesiologists class unassigned, or no follow-up), 29 834 patients were analyzed in the mesh group and 5599 in the no-mesh group. Main Outcomes and Measures Ventral hernia recurrence rates. Risk factors analyzed include age, body mass index, sex, race, insurance type, medical comorbidities, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, smoking, indication for surgery, concomitant procedure, hernia procedure type, myofascial release, fascial closure, fixation type, number of prior repairs, hernia width, hernia length, mesh width, mesh length, operative approach, prior mesh placement, prior mesh infection, mesh location, mesh type, postoperative surgical site occurrence, postoperative surgical site infection, postoperative seroma, use of drains, and reoperation. Results Among 29 834 patients with mesh, the mean (SD) age was 57.17 (13.36) years, and 14 331 participants (48.0%) were female. Among 5599 patients without mesh, the mean (SD) age was 51.9 (15.31) years, and 2458 participants (43.9%) were female. When comparing year-over-year hernia recurrence rates in patients with and without prior mesh repair, respectively, the Kaplan Meier analysis showed a recurrence rate of 201 cumulative events with 13 872 at risk (2.8%) vs 104 cumulative events with 1707 at risk (4.0%) at 6 months; 411 cumulative events with 4732 at risk (8.0%) vs 184 cumulative events with 427 at risk (32.6%) at 1 year; 640 cumulative events with 1518 at risk (19.7%) vs 243 cumulative events with 146 at risk (52.4%) at 2 years; 731 cumulative events with 670 at risk (29.3%) vs 258 cumulative events with 73 at risk (61.4%) at 3 years; 777 cumulative events with 337 at risk (38.5%) vs 267 cumulative events with 29 at risk (71.2%) at 4 years; and 798 cumulative events with 171 at risk (44.9%) vs 269 cumulative events with 19 at risk (73.7%) at 5 years. Higher body mass index; immunosuppressants; incisional and parastomal hernias; a robotic approach; greater hernia width; use of a biologic or resorbable synthetic mesh; and complications, such as surgical site infections and reoperation, were associated with higher odds of hernia recurrence. Conversely, greater mesh width, myofascial release, and fascial closure had lower odds of recurrence. Hernia type was the most important variable associated with recurrence. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, the 5-year recurrence rate after ventral hernia repair was greater than 40% and 70% in patients with and without mesh, respectively. Rates of ventral hernia recurrence increased over time, underscoring the importance of close, long-term follow up in this population.
