The transition patterns of rural household carbon footprint in China

The carbon footprint of rural household consumption in China has a substantial scale and unique characteristics compared to urban areas. However, there remains a lack of studies that clarify the sources and potential of rural household carbon footprint in China. In this study, we estimated the rural household carbon footprint of 30 provinces in China's mainland in 2007, 2012, and 2017 based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output model, and investigated the transition patterns with a consideration of the trends, regional differences, driving forces, and structural changes. Results revealed that the carbon footprint of rural household consumption in China grew by 83% from 2007 to 2017 and displayed a weak decoupling from income growth. The transition patterns were observed from three perspectives: Firstly, the primary driving force behind the growth was income increase, while the decrease in carbon footprint intensity slowed down the growth significantly. Secondly, housing and direct emission contributed to 62% of the growth in rural household carbon footprint, while health care, transportation, and other services showed increasing contributions. Lastly, there were notable "higher in the north, lower in the south"regional differences in the per capita rural household carbon footprint, and the gap tended to increase. The main reasons for the regional differences were intensity change, income increase, housing consumption, and direct emission. Our findings can offer decision-making support to guide rural household consumption towards achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.