Exact and Efficient Network Reliability Evaluation per Outage Scale

In communication networks, the significance of an outage is measured mainly by its scale (number of disconnected nodes). To avoid serious outages, operators design their networks so that the reliability meets the specification for each outage scale, where the more significant the outage, the less likely it is to occur. Although scale-wise unreliability has been evaluated with rough approximation, sixth-generation (6G) mobile communication requires more accurate reliability evaluation with seven 9's accuracy. Unfortunately, accurate scale-wise reliability evaluation is a computationally very tough problem, so no previous literature has studied evaluation methods rigorous enough for 6G. This paper proposes an efficient algorithm to exactly compute the probability for each number of disconnected nodes. Our algorithm performs the scale-wise unreliability evaluation in a dynamic programming manner without redundant repetition for each outage scale. Numerical experiments using real network topologies show its great efficiency, e.g., our algorithm computes exact probabilities for every outage scale in just two hours for a network with nearly 200 links. We also provide several interesting insights on the reliability of real topologies from the scale-wise perspective, since our work is the first to present the scale-wise unreliability of real large topologies.