Topic-based classification and identification of global trends for startup companies

To foresee global economic trends, one needs to understand the present startup companies that soon may become new market leaders. In this paper, we explore textual descriptions of more than 250 thousand startups in the Crunchbase database. We analyze the 2009-2019 period by using topic modeling. We propose a novel classification of startup companies free from expert bias that contains 38 topics and quantifies the weight of each of these topics for all the startups. Taking the year of establishment and geographical location of the startups into account, we measure which topics were increasing or decreasing their share over time, and which of them were predominantly present in Europe, North America, or other regions. We find that the share of startups focused on data analytics, social platforms, and financial transfers, and time management has risen, while an opposite trend is observed for mobile gaming, online news, and online social networks as well as legal and professional services. We also identify strong regional differences in topic distribution, suggesting certain concentration of the startups. For example, sustainable agriculture is presented stronger in South America and Africa, while pharmaceutics, in North America and Europe. Furthermore, we explore which pairs of topics tend to co-occur more often together, quantify how multisectoral the startups are, and which startup classes attract more investments. Finally, we compare our classification to the one existing in the Crunchbase database, demonstrating how we improve it. Plain English Summary We propose a novel classification of more than 250 thousand startups registered in the Crunchbase database based on machine learning algorithms and free from expert bias. We find that the share of startups focused on data analytics, social platforms, and financial transfers, and time management has risen, while an opposite trend is observed for mobile gaming, online news, and online social networks as well as legal and professional services. We also identify strong regional differences in class distribution, suggesting, for example, sustainable agriculture being present stronger in South America and Africa, while pharmaceutics, in North America and Europe. Our classification can improve analysis of the Crunchbase data further promoting the popularity of the platform, while the trends identified will be useful for investors and policy makers. Last not least, this paper presents the first application of topic modeling to startup companies, providing thus a new direction for academic research.