Developing a reasonable crop planting layout under climate change is critical for improving peanut yield and alleviating the contradiction of edible oil in China. Henan province is strengthening summer peanut production, and the summer peanut climatic suitability was evaluated from 1981 to 2019 at county level by coupling drought-waterlogging risk with potential productivity. Two yield levels, i.e., yield potentials under well-watered conditions (Y-p) and under rainfed conditions (Y-rp) simulated by Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM-Peanut), were considered to indicate the potential productivity under different growing environments. Higher Y-p (or Y-rp) mainly located in the northern (or southern) parts of Henan province. Differences in the distribution of Y-p and Y-rp caused the divergent patterns in the climatic suitability under these two conditions. The suitable zones under well-watered conditions were mainly located in the western and central parts, whereas the suitable zones under rainfed conditions were mainly located in the southern parts. Divergent patterns were detected in other parts, where climatic suitability under well-watered relative to rainfed conditions changed from suitable zones to near-suitable zones in western parts and from near-suitable to non-suitable zones in northern parts, indicating that irrigation could improve climatic suitability for summer peanut planting in these regions. A total of 56% of the peanut planting area was matched with the suitable zones under rainfed conditions based on the county-level peanut planting area from 2013 to 2017. Collectively, our work provides a novel framework for estimating crop planting suitability and can offer a refined benchmark for summer peanut planting layout.
