Improved monthly runoff time series prediction using the SOA-SVM model based on ICEEMDAN-WD decomposition

In runoff prediction, the prediction accuracy is often affected by the non-linear and non-stationary characteristics of the runoff series. In this study, a coupled forecasting model is proposed that decomposes the original runoff series by an improved complete ensemble EMD (ICEEMDAN) combined with a wavelet decomposition (WD) and then forecasts the monthly runoff using a support vector machine (SVM) optimized by the seagull optimization algorithm (SOA). In this method, a series of IMF and a Res are obtained by decomposing the original runoff series with ICEEMDAN. The WD method is used to perform quadratic decomposition of high-frequency components decomposed by the ICEEMDAN method to make the runoff series as smooth as possible. Then the decomposed components are input into the SOA-SVM model for prediction. Finally, the prediction results of each component are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final monthly runoff prediction results. RMSE, MAPE, NSEC and R are selected to evaluate the prediction results and the model is compared with the SOA-SVM, EMD-SOA-SVM and CEEMDAN-SOA-SVM models. The proposed model is applied to the monthly runoff forecast of the Hongjiadu and Manwan Reservoirs. When compared with other benchmarking models, the ICEEMDAN-WD-SOA-SVM model attains the smallest RMSE and MAPE and the largest NSEC and R. The ICEEMDAN-WD-SOA-SVM model has the best prediction effect, the highest prediction accuracy and the lowest prediction error.