Potential spatial distributions of Tibetan antelope and protected areas on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Climate change has been regarded as a major factor affecting the geographic distribution of many endemic rare species on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Tibetan antelope, an endemic rare wildlife, is identified as a national first-class protected wild animal in China. To explore the impacts of human activities and climate change on the spatial distribution pattern of Tibetan antelope, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of Tibetan antelope under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways in 2050s and 2070s and combined the modelling results of the main forage plants considering the food chains. The results showed that the environment indicators, e.g., elevation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, slope, mean temperature of warmest quarter, landcover, max temperature of warmest month, precipitation of driest month, Stipa capillata, Oxytropis ochrocephala, human influence intensity, were the main factors controlling the distribution of Tibetan antelope. The potential distributions of Tibetan antelope and their 10 forage plants were significantly different under future climate scenarios such as expanding, contracting and shifting. The mean elevation of suitable habitats for Tibetan antelope all increased under the four future scenarios compared with current value. There were protection gaps for Tibetan antelope. Considering the long-distance migration, the integrity of the ecosystem including Qiangtang National Nature Reserve, Altun National Nature Reserve, and Kekexili National Nature Reserve would be established for Tibetan antelope. Our findings will provide important references for the protection and investigation of Tibetan antelope.