The effect of governance structures on optimal control of two-patch epidemic models

被引:0
|
作者
Howerton, Emily [1 ,2 ]
Dahlin, Kyle [3 ]
Edholm, Christina J. [4 ]
Fox, Lindsey [5 ]
Reynolds, Margaret [6 ]
Hollingsworth, Brandon [7 ]
Lytle, George [8 ]
Walker, Melody [9 ]
Blackwood, Julie [10 ]
Lenhart, Suzanne [11 ]
机构
[1] Penn State Univ, Dept Biol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
[2] Penn State Univ, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, University Pk, PA USA
[3] Univ Georgia, Ctr Ecol Infect Dis, Odum Sch Ecol, Athens, GA 30602 USA
[4] Scripps Coll, Math Dept, Claremont, CA USA
[5] Eckerd Coll, Math Discipline, St Petersburg, FL USA
[6] United States Mil Acad, Dept Math Sci, West Point, NY USA
[7] Cornell Univ, Dept Entomol, Ithaca, NY USA
[8] Univ Montevallo, Dept Biol Chem Math & Comp Sci, Montevallo, AL USA
[9] Univ Florida, Dept Med, Gainesville, FL USA
[10] Williams Coll, Dept Math & Stat, Williamstown, MA USA
[11] Univ Tennessee, Dept Math, Knoxville, TN USA
关键词
Governance; ODE model; Optimal control; Spatial movement; Cholera; Ebola; 92-10; DISEASE DYNAMICS; TRANSMISSION; STRATEGIES; VACCINE; NUMBERS; HAITI;
D O I
10.1007/s00285-023-02001-8
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Infectious diseases continue to pose a significant threat to the health of humans globally. While the spread of pathogens transcends geographical boundaries, the management of infectious diseases typically occurs within distinct spatial units, determined by geopolitical boundaries. The allocation of management resources within and across regions (the "governance structure") can affect epidemiological outcomes considerably, and policy-makers are often confronted with a choice between applying control measures uniformly or differentially across regions. Here, we investigate the extent to which uniform and non-uniform governance structures affect the costs of an infectious disease outbreak in two-patch systems using an optimal control framework. A uniform policy implements control measures with the same time varying rate functions across both patches, while these measures are allowed to differ between the patches in a non-uniform policy. We compare results from two systems of differential equations representing transmission of cholera and Ebola, respectively, to understand the interplay between transmission mode, governance structure and the optimal control of outbreaks. In our case studies, the governance structure has a meaningful impact on the allocation of resources and burden of cases, although the difference in total costs is minimal. Understanding how governance structure affects both the optimal control functions and epidemiological outcomes is crucial for the effective management of infectious diseases going forward.
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页数:31
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