Sensitivities of Numerical Model Forecasts of Extreme Cyclone Events

被引:6
|
作者
A. C. Yih
J. E. Walsh
机构
[1] Department of Atmospheric Sciences
[2] IL 61801
[3] University of Illinois
[4] Urbana
关键词
Sensitivities of Numerical Model Forecasts of Extreme Cyclone Events; SST;
D O I
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学科分类号
摘要
A global forecast model is used to examine various sensitivities of numerical predictions of three extreme winter storms that occurred near the eastern continental margin of North America: the Ohio Valley blizzard of January 1978, the New England blizzard of February 1978, and the Mid-Atlantic cyclone of February 1979. While medium-resolution simulations capture much of the intensification, the forecasts of the precise timing and intensity levels suffer from various degrees of error. The coastal cyclones show a 5-10 hPa dependence on the western North Atlantic sea surface temperature, which is varied within a range (± 2.5℃) compatible with interannual fluctuations. The associated vertical velocities and precipitation rates show proportionately stronger dependences on the ocean temperature perturbations. The Ohio Valley blizzard, which intensified along a track 700-800 km from the coast, shows little sensitivity to ocean temperature. The effect of a shift of - 10?latitude in the position of the snow bo
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页码:51 / 66
页数:16
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