Seismic reliability analysis of large electric power systems

Based on the De.Morgan laws and Boolean simplification,a recursive decomposition method is introduced inthis paper to identify the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network.The reliability or the reliability bound ofa network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths.Under the multivariatenormal distribution assumption,a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of variousexclusive safe paths and failed paths,and,finally,the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system.Examples given in the paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliabilityanalysis.