Evaluation of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

被引：0

作者：

GUO Dong-Lin ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

SUN Jian-Qi ^{[1
]}

YU En-Tao ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

[3] Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change,Chengdu University of Information Technology

来源：

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2018年 / 11卷 / 03期

基金：

国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Tibetan plateau; RCM; climate simulation; COEDEX;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P462 [气候类型];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

区域气候模式对研究地形复杂的青藏高原地区气候具有高分辨率的优势。以前的相关研究主要基于单个区域模式,我们评估了CORDEX多区域气候模式对青藏高原气候的模拟能力。结果显示:(1)5个区域气候模式一致模拟出了相似的气温、降水空间模态,但产生了冷偏差和湿偏差。所有区域气候模式未能再现观测的气温、降水趋势空间模态,并且平均高估了气温趋势、低估了降水趋势。综合考虑模拟的气温、降水趋势,多模式集合的结果最优。就单个模式而言,Reg CM4所得趋势最为合理。(2)各区域气候模式结果之间的差异十分显著,表明青藏高原气候模拟具有很大的模式依赖性。这一结果建议当利用单个区域气候模式开展青藏高原气候变化研究时需要谨慎。(3)多区域模式集合预估显示,相对1986–2005年,到2016–2035年气温(降水)将增加1.38±0.09°C(0.8%±4.0%)(RCP4.5)和1.77±0.28°C(7.3%±2.5%)(RCP8.5)。这些结果从多模式角度提高了我们对运用区域气候模式研究青藏高原气候的认识。

引用

页码：219 / 227

页数：9

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