Reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature in 2020/21 and its predictability

被引：1
|
作者：
Hongqing Yang [1 ]
Ke Fan [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
来源：
AtmosphericandOceanicScienceLetters | 2022年 / 15卷 / 01期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
月际转折; 东亚; 冬季气温; 巴伦支海-拉普捷夫海海冰; 平流层极涡; 西伯利亚高压; 可预测性;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P423 [大气温度];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
在全球变暖的背景下,近年来东亚冬季气温存在复杂的季节内变化.本文研究了2020/21年东亚冬季气温的月际转折及可预测性.结果表明,2020/21年东亚冬季气温前冬(2020年12月-2021年1月中旬)偏冷,后冬(2021年1月中旬-2月)偏暖.西伯利亚高压强度在前冬和后冬也出现转折变化.在前冬,由于2020年9月巴伦支海-拉普捷夫海海冰达到1981-2020年以来的最小值,北极至东亚地区的温度梯度减弱,西伯利亚高压增强.在后冬,由于2021年1月5日发生平流层爆发性增温,1月平流层极涡减弱增暖,且最弱中心向北美偏移.因此,对流层中低层负的类北极涛动位相也向北美偏移,西伯利亚高压减弱.基于NCEP-CFSv2月际和逐日的预测结果显示,该预测系统不能较好地再现此次东亚冬季气温的月际转折.然而,在日尺度上,模式能提前1-20天较好地预测东亚冬季气温的转折日期.
引用
收藏
页码：44 / 50
页数：7
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