Impacts of different radiation schemes on the prediction of solar radiation and photovoltaic power

被引：2

作者：

CHEN Wei-Dong ^{[1
]}

CUI Fang ^{[1
]}

ZHOU Hai ^{[1
]}

DING Huang ^{[1
]}

LI Deng-Xuan ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] China Electric Power Research Institute

来源：

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2017年 / 10卷 / 06期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

数值模拟; 辐射方案; 光伏功率预测;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TM615 [太阳能发电];

学科分类号：

0807 ;

摘要：

光伏发电系统的输出功率很大程度上取决于光伏面板所能接收到的太阳辐射量,到达地面的太阳辐射能量又受辐射传输过程影响。然而在工程实践中,数值模拟预报方案往往只采用一种辐射方案,导致太能辐射量和光伏发电功率的预测常不能满足预测精度。本文利用NCEP-NCAR的再分析数据作为初始场,以新疆区域为例选用多种辐射参数化方案进行组合模拟。通过算例分析后发现:不同的辐射参数化方案模拟结果差别很大,总辐射和预测功率的绝对误差分别为106.67 W m-2 and 3.5 MW。总辐射的平均绝对百分比误差范围为8.6%~17.3%,预测功率的平均绝对百分比误差范围为11.3%~20.2%。分析多种辐射参数化方案的模拟结果发现:RRTM/Dudhia和CAM辐射方案适合于晴天模拟

引用

页码：446 / 451

页数：6

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