The change and prediction of temperature and precipitation in the Dawen River basin using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM)

In order to explore the climate change in the Dawen River basin, based on the data of six weather stations in the Dawen River basin from 1966 to 2017,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to study the temperature and precipitation trends, mutations and cycles in the region.In addition, based on the three scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 under the CanESM2 model, SDSM was used to compare and analyze the future climate change of the Dawen River basin.The results revealed that: the annual mean temperature of the Dawen River basin had increased significantly since 1966(p<0.01);in different scenarios, the spatial distribution of the projected maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation will hardly change compared with that in history; the temperature and precipitation in the Dawen River basin will generally increase in the future.The rising trend of maximum and minimum temperature under the three scenarios is in the EP<MP<LP,and June and November was the months with the highest increase; the future precipitation will have the highest increase in July and August.Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual maximum and minimum temperatures in the future will increase with the increase in time scale.