Modeling the Past and Current Distribution and Habitat Suitability for Ablepharus grayanus and A. pannonicus(Sauria: Scincidae)

Study of the climate variability in the past and present, and correlating those with changes in the distribution range of species has attracted considerable research interest. The genus Ablepharus consists of 10 recognized species, of which A. bivittatus, A. grayanus and A. pannonicus are documented from Iran. In the present study, we modeled with Max Ent the potential distribution areas and determined the suitable habitats in past(mid-Holocene [MH], and the Last Interglacial [LIG]) and their current distribution for two species of snake-eyed skinks(A. grayanus and A. pannonicus) separately. Models of the species indicated good fit by the average high area under the curve(AUC) values(A. grayanus= 0.929 ± 0.087 and A. pannonicus = 0.979 ± 0.007). Precipitation of the driest quarter of the year, mean temperature of the coldest quarter of the year, and precipitation of the driest month variables made important contributions to A. grayanus. Two important climate variables contributed importantly to A. pannonicus; temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the year, and one topographic variable, slope. We conclude that these variables form a natural barrier for species dispersal. The MH and the LGM models indicated a larger suitable area than the current distribution.