Predicting and assessing changes in NPP based on multi-scenario land use and cover simulations on the Loess Plateau

Land use/cover change(LUCC) is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP). According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015, the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model. Furthermore, taking the average NPP of various land use/cover types in 16 years as the reference scale, the changes in NPP in multi-scenario simulations are predicted and analyzed, and the impact of different land use/cover transfers on NPP is quantified. The results are as follows:(1) The land use/cover changes greatly in the baseline and fast development scenarios, and changes relatively little in the ecological protection scenarios.(2) The changes in NPP in different scenarios reflected the significant difference in the ecological protection effect. All the three scenarios promote an NPP increase, but the ecological protection scenario can promote NPP increases the most.(3) The changes in NPP caused by LUCC in the three scenarios reflected the significant difference in the various land use/cover types protection effect. Analyzing and predicting NPP changes in multi-scenario LUCC simulations in the future can provide a theoretical basis for decision makers to judge the future changes in ecological environments and ecological protection effects against different policy backgrounds.