Fault prediction model based on evidential reasoning approach

In order to deal with fault prediction problems that involve both quantitative and qualitative in-formation for nonlinear complex system, a new fault prediction model is established based on the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, and an optimal learning algorithm for training ER-based prediction model is pre-sented based on the mean square error (MSE) criterion. This prediction model inherits the advantages of ER approach, which can deal with precise data, incomplete data and fuzzy data with nonlinear characteristic. In this model, the input signals transformed using rule based information transformation technique, are aggregated by analytical ER approach, and then the outputs of prediction model are constructed according to the types of system outputs. In addition, two fault decision criteria are defined to conduct fault identification. To overcome the difficulty in determining model parameters accurately and subjectively, a nonlinear optimization model is constructed and the optimal parameters are obtained. Two experimental studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The results show that the established prediction model and the presented parameters optimization methods can deal with fault prediction problem effectively.