Analysis of scrap flows from recycling aluminum-intensive vehicles in the United States: Insights from a case study on the F-150

The rise of mass-produced aluminum-sheet-intensive vehicles signals a coming wave of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) aluminum sheet scrap. This article aims to model the effectiveness of conventional and emerging recycling systems for aluminum-intensive vehicles, focusing on scrap composition and its impact on closed-loop sheet recycling. The methodological contribution lies in integrating vehicle design data with recycling trial results to analyze the evolution of scrap chemistry and identify its key determinants. Recycling inputs are quantified by developing a Spatial-Composition-Joining model of the recycling-pertinent aspects of a vehicle's design: metallic component mass, geometry, alloy, and interconnections. Combined with mass flow and composition measurements from a recycling trial on Ford's aluminum-intensive F-150 s, we track scrap chemistry and identify castings as the primary source of elements problematic in high-value recycling. The results are used to estimate how advances in vehicle design and recycling will impact scrap chemistry, guiding industry in preparation for aluminum-rich ELVs.