Radiomics Analysis of Pericoronary Adipose Tissue From Baseline Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Enables Prediction of Coronary Plaque Progression

Purpose: The relationship between plaque progression and pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) radiomics has not been comprehensively evaluated. We aim to predict plaque progression with PCAT radiomics features and evaluate their incremental value over quantitative plaque characteristics. Patients and Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2020, 500 patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) >= 2 years apart were retrospectively analyzed and randomly stratified into a training and testing data set with a ratio of 7:3. Plaque progression was defined with annual change in plaque burden exceeding the median value in the entire cohort. Quantitative plaque characteristics and PCAT radiomics features were extracted from baseline CCTA. Then we built 3 models including quantitative plaque characteristics (model 1), PCAT radiomics features (model 2), and the combined model (model 3) to compare the prediction performance evaluated by area under the curve. Results: The quantitative plaque characteristics of the training set showed the values of noncalcified plaque volume (NCPV), fibrous plaque volume, lesion length, and PCAT attenuation were larger in the plaque progression group than in the nonprogression group (P < 0.05 for all). In multivariable logistic analysis, NCPV and PCAT attenuation were independent predictors of coronary plaque progression. PCAT radiomics exhibited significantly superior prediction over quantitative plaque characteristics both in the training (area under the curve: 0.814 vs 0.615, P < 0.001) and testing (0.736 vs 0.594, P = 0.007) data sets. Conclusions: NCPV and PCAT attenuation were independent predictors of coronary plaque progression. PCAT radiomics derived from baseline CCTA achieved significantly better prediction than quantitative plaque characteristics.