The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions

被引：7

作者：

Goh, Rachel Sze Jen ^{[1
]}

Chong, Bryan ^{[1
]}

Jayabaskaran, Jayanth ^{[1
]}

Jauhari, Silingga Metta ^{[2
,3
]}

Chan, Siew Pang ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Kueh, Martin Tze Wah ^{[4
,5
,6
]}

Shankar, Kannan ^{[1
]}

Li, Henry ^{[7
]}

Chin, Yip Han ^{[8
]}

Kong, Gwyneth ^{[8
]}

Anand, Vickram Vijay ^{[9
]}

Chan, Keith Andrew ^{[3
,10
]}

Sukmawati, Indah ^{[11
]}

Toh, Sue Anne ^{[1
,12
,13
,14
]}

Muthiah, Mark ^{[1
,15
,16
]}

Wang, Jiong-Wei ^{[17
]}

Tse, Gary ^{[18
,19
]}

Mehta, Anurag ^{[20
]}

Fong, Alan ^{[21
,22
]}

Baskaran, Lohendran ^{[23
,24
,25
,26
,27
]}

Zhong, Liang ^{[25
,26
,27
,28
]}

Yap, Jonathan ^{[23
,24
]}

Yeo, Khung Keong ^{[23
,24
]}

Hausenloy, Derek J. ^{[1
,29
,30
,31
]}

Tan, Jack Wei Chieh ^{[23
,24
]}

Chao, Tze-Fan ^{[32
,33
,34
]}

Li, Yi-Heng ^{[35
]}

Lim, Shir Lynn ^{[1
,3
,36
]}

Chan, Koo Hui ^{[1
,3
]}

Loh, Poay Huan ^{[1
,3
,37
]}

Chai, Ping ^{[1
,3
]}

Yeo, Tiong Cheng ^{[1
,3
]}

Low, Adrian F. ^{[1
,3
]}

Lee, Chi Hang ^{[1
,3
]}

Foo, Roger ^{[1
,3
]}

Tan, Huay Cheem ^{[1
,3
]}

Yip, James ^{[1
,3
]}

Rao, Sarita ^{[38
]}

Honda, Satoshi ^{[39
]}

Yasuda, Satoshi ^{[39
]}

Kajiya, Takashi ^{[40
]}

Goto, Shinya ^{[41
]}

Yan, Bryan P. ^{[42
]}

Zhou, Xin ^{[43
]}

Figtree, Gemma A. ^{[44
]}

Mamas, Mamas A. ^{[45
]}

Kim, Yongcheol ^{[46
,47
]}

Jeong, Young-Hoon ^{[48
,49
]}

Kim, Moo Hyun ^{[50
]}

Park, Duk-Woo ^{[51
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Univ Singapore, Yong Loo Lin Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore

[2] Natl Univ Heart Ctr Singapore, Cardiovasc Res Inst, Dept Cardiac, Singapore, Singapore

[3] Natl Univ Hlth Syst, Natl Univ Heart Ctr, Dept Cardiol, 5 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, Singapore 119074, Singapore

[4] Royal Coll Surgeons Ireland, Malaysia Campus, Dublin, Malaysia

[5] Univ Coll Dublin, Malaysia Campus, Dublin, Malaysia

[6] Univ Coll Dublin, UCD Conway Inst Biomol & Biomed Res, UCD Sch Med & Med Sci, Dublin, Ireland

[7] Univ New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[8] Minist Hlth, Minist Hlth Holdings, Singapore, Singapore

[9] Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore

[10] Chong Hua Hosp, Sect Adult Cardiol, Philippines Don Mariano Cui St, Cebu 6000, Philippines

[11] Pelita Harapan Univ, Siloam Hosp Lippo Village, Dept Cardiovasc, Tangerang, Indonesia

[12] Natl Univ Singapore Hosp, Dept Med, Singapore, Singapore

[13] NOVI Hlth, Singapore, Singapore

[14] Natl Univ Hlth Syst, Reg Hlth Syst Off, Singapore, Singapore

[15] Natl Univ Hlth Syst, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Dept Med, Singapore, Singapore

[16] Natl Univ Hlth Syst, Natl Univ Ctr Organ Transplantat, Singapore, Singapore

[17] Natl Univ Singapore, Yong Loo Lin Sch Med, Dept Surg, Singapore, Singapore

[18] Tianjin Med Univ, Tianjin Inst Cardiol, Tianjin Key Lab Ion Mol Funct Cardiovasc Dis, Dept Cardiol,Hosp 2, Tianjin 300211, Peoples R China

[19] Kent & Medway Med Sch, Canterbury CT2 7NT, Kent, England

[20] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Div Cardiol, Richmond, VA USA

[21] Sarawak Gen Hosp, Inst Clin Res, Clin Res Ctr, Kuching, Malaysia

[22] Sarawak Heart Ctr, Dept Cardiol, Kota Samarahan, Malaysia

[23] Natl Heart Ctr Singapore, Dept Cardiovasc Med, Singapore, Singapore

[24] Duke Natl Univ Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

[25] Natl Heart Ctr Singapore, Natl Heart Res Inst, CVS AI, Singapore, Singapore

[26] Duke Natl Univ, Cardiovasc Sci Acad Clin Program, Singapore Med Sch, Singapore 169857, Singapore

[27] Duke Natl Univ, Singapore Med Sch, Cardiovasc Metab Disorder Program, Singapore 169857, Singapore

[28] Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Biomed Engn, Singapore 117583, Singapore

[29] Duke NUS Med Sch, Cardiovasc & Metab Disorders Programme, Singapore, Singapore

[30] Natl Heart Ctr Singapore, Natl Heart Res Inst Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

[31] Univ Coll London Hosp, Hatter Cardiovasc Inst, London WC1E 6HX, England

[32] Taipei Vet Gen Hosp, Dept Med, Div Cardiol, Taipei, Taiwan

[33] Natl Yang Ming Chiao Tung Univ, Cardiovasc Res Ctr, Taipei 11217, Taiwan

[34] Natl Yang Ming Chiao Tung Univ, Cardiovasc Res Ctr, Taipei, Taiwan

[35] Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Natl Cheng Kung Univ Hosp, Coll Med, Dept Internal Med, Tainan, Taiwan

[36] Duke NUS Med Sch, Prehosp Emergency Res Ctr, Singapore, Singapore

[37] Ng Teng Fong Gen Hosp, Dept Anaesthesiol, Singapore, Singapore

[38] Apollo Hosp, Indore, India

[39] Natl Cerebral & Cardiovasc Ctr, Dept Cardiovasc Med, Suita, Japan

[40] Tenyoukai Cent Hosp, Clin Res Ctr, 6-7 Izumi Cho, Kagoshima 8920822, Japan

[41] Tokai Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med Cardiol, 143 Shimokasuya, Isehara, Kanagawa 2591193, Japan

[42] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Med & Therapeut, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[43] Tianjin Med Univ, Gen Hosp, 154 Anshan Rd, Tianjin 300052, Peoples R China

[44] Royal North Shore Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Sydney, Australia

[45] Keele Univ, Keele Cardiovasc Res Grp, Sch Med, Keele, England

[46] Yonsei Univ, Coll Med, Yongin, South Korea

[47] Yongin Severance Hosp, Cardiovasc Ctr, Yongin, South Korea

[48] Chung Ang Univ, Gwangmyeong Hosp, Dept Urol, Gwangmyeong, South Korea

[49] Chung Ang Univ, Dept Internal Med, Coll Med, Seoul, South Korea

[50] Dong A Univ Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Busan, South Korea

来源：

LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-WESTERN PACIFIC | 2024年 / 49卷

关键词：

Global burden; Cardiovascular disease; Risk factors; Mortality; Disability-adjusted life years; Asia; RISK-FACTORS; METAANALYSIS; MORTALITY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138

中图分类号：

R19 [保健组织与事业（卫生事业管理）];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.

引用

页数：13

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