Impacts of Changing Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Aviation Turbulence Over Europe

Addressing aviation turbulence not only enhances passenger comfort but also help to reduce fuel consumption and environmental impact, supporting aviation sustainability. By using ERA5 reanalysis data we explore how changing atmospheric circulation, monitored via sea level pressure trends, impacts aviation turbulence over Europe. Our results show coherent climate anomalies, with rising turbulence intensity over the UK and Northern Europe where most events involve clear air turbulence, which occurs unexpectedly and without warning, particularly at flight altitudes. We also highlight a clear seasonal patterns in moderate-or-greater turbulence encounters, most frequent and intense in winter, with a key role of wind shears due to the sub-tropical jet position over Southern Mediterranean. Our approach adds to previous studies on the same topic by analyzing individual atmospheric circulation pattern changes and their effects on turbulence-related factors. This offers insight into how climate change affecting atmospheric dynamics may contribute to increased aviation turbulence.