Endometrial Cancer: Analysing Patterns of Recurrence and Real-Life Outcome Data Using the 2020 ESGO-ESTRO-ESP Risk Stratification

Aims: To evaluate patterns of recurrence and explore the prognostic differences between the 2018 FIGO staging system and the 2020 ESGO-ESTRO-ESP risk stratification system of endometrial cancer with an emphasis on early-stage disease. Background: The incidence of endometrial cancer has risen by around 60% since the 90's. It is projected that by 2035 endometrial cancer will be the sixth most common cause of cancer-related death amongst females. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study which included patients treated between 2010 and 2017. Primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Kaplan-Meyer survival analysis was used to assess OS and RFS across different risk groups. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate prognostic risk factors implicated in recurrence. Different recurrence patterns across the subgroups were analysed with Pearson's chisquare test. Results: The study included 692 patients with a recurrence rate of 14.9%. The median time to recurrence was 17.1 months (IQR:8.8-28.4). The mean OS varied between 97.2 months in the low-risk group to 63.1 months in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). Mean RFS was 96.1 in the low-risk group and 58.9 in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). RFS was predicted by the following factors; high risk group (OR=3.87; p = 0.041), LVSI (OR=2.54, p = 0.005), carcinosarcoma (OR=2.20, p = 0.021) and serous subtype (OR=1.91, p = 0.01). Logistic regression was used to evaluate risk factors for loco-regional and distant recurrence. Patients in the low- risk group were less likely to have distant recurrence (OR=0.08, p = 0.004). Similarly, negative LVSI and Grade 1 cancers were associated with decreased risk of distant recurrence (OR=0.34, p = 0.006 and OR=0.33, p = 0.007, respectively). There were no significant risk factors for loco-regional recurrence. Conclusions: The 2020 ESGO-ESTRO-ESP risk stratification provides accurate estimates of recurrence risk and survival. Those treated in line with current guidance have significantly better outcomes. Crown Copyright (c) 2024 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Royal College of Radiologists. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.