Regionalized decision-supporting tool application for scenario analyses considering stakeholder interactions: A case study of the Groningen province in the northern Netherlands

Regionalized integrated energy system models considering stakeholder inputs are uncommon in the literature. This study tested and validated an existing quantitative optimization-based OPERA regional modeling framework. Stakeholder responses to surveys resulted in multiple future scenarios and sensitivities, applied to the Dutch province of Groningen energy transition. Stakeholder reflections in a workshop confirmed the potential of the model as a strategic decision-supporting tool. The tool successfully analyzed trade-offs, compromises, and complementarities regarding the different choices of stakeholders. The study reflected on the modest role of solar photovoltaics, which supplied 6.6-17.5 % of the primary energy, in comparison to policies and stakeholder assumptions. Biomass energy, at 18.2-28.5 %, was more prominent than expected. Similarly, choosing a scenario close to the current policy implied a strong dependency on imports, with net imports constituting 50 % of the energy supply. On the other hand, regional self-sufficiency implied spatial implications beyond stakeholder expectations. For example, land use associated with onshore wind energy was similar to 13 % of the provincial land. The stakeholder interaction process highlighted capacity investments via other harmonized model linkages and the importance of the science-policy interfaces. Compared with contemporary models, the major advancements are spatial interfacing and the inclusion of land-use planning and policy constraints.