Sensitivity analysis of human error in the steel industry: exploring the effects of psychosocial and mental health risk factors and burnout using Bayesian networks

Introduction Human error and the high rates of fatalities and other occupational accidents in the steel industry are of significant global relevance. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of psychosocial, mental health, and burnout risk factors on human error probabilities in an industrial environment using Bayesian networks.Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2023. The participants were 252 employees of a steel company. Error probabilities related to the tasks of participants were estimated using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART). Other data was collected using a survey that consisted of demographic information, the Maslach Burnout Inventory, Depression Anxiety Stress Scales, and a short version of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire. A theoretical model was drawn in GeNIe academic software (version 2.3).Results The results showed that all the studied variables were able to significantly affect the distribution of human error probabilities. Considering a distribution of 100% for the high state of these variables, the results showed that the greatest increases in error probability were related to two burnout dimensions: emotional exhaustion (29%) and depersonalization (28%). All the variables, with a probability of 100%, increased the probability of high human error probabilities by 46%.Conclusion The most important variables in terms of their effect on human error probabilities were burnout dimensions, and these variables also had a mediation effect on the psychosocial and mental health variables. Therefore, preventive measures to control human error should first focus on managing the risks of burnout in workers. This, in turn, can also reduce the effect of psychosocial risk factors and mental health problems on human error in the workplace.