Meta-analysis: accuracy of the Baveno VI criteria for the diagnosis of high-risk varices in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and aim: Diagnosing high-risk varices (HRV) is crucial for determining the prognosis and treatment strategy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although the Baveno VI consensus guidelines have been validated for assessing HRV in patients with liver cirrhosis, their applicability to those with HCC remains uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Baveno VI criteria in screening for HRV in patients with HCC. Methods: We searched for English-language articles related to Baveno criteria and HCC across PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases, covering publications from their inception until April 19, 2024. Our meta-analysis was conducted using STATA 14.0 and Meta-Disc 1.4 software. We assessed the quality of the included studies using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. We analyzed pooled sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) using a random-effects model and constructed a summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve. Based on established consensus, the favorable Baveno VI criteria were defined as a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) < 20 kPa and a platelet count (PLT) > 150x109/L to exclude HRV. This study is registered with PROSPERO under the registration number CRD42024533946. Results: We finally brought four studies, including 1277 patients with HCC, into this meta-analysis. The SEN, SPE, DOR, and AUC of favorable Baveno VI criteria in screening HRV in patients with HCC were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81-0.95), 0.33 (95% CI: 0.25-0.41), 4.44 (95% CI: 2.14-9.22), and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.64), respectively. The LR+ and LR- of the favorable Baveno VI criteria were 1.34 (95% CI: 1.19-1.50) and 0.30 (95% CI: 0.16-0.58), respectively. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses indicated that BCLC and Child-Pugh stages likely contribute to the heterogeneity in the SPE. Conclusions: The favorable Baveno VI criteria may not effectively screen HRV in patients with HCC. However, the current evidence is insufficient, and further studies with larger sample sizes and detailed patient subgroups are needed. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42024533946.