Investigation of the impact of diverse climate conditions on the cultivation suitability of Cinnamomum cassia using the MaxEnt model, HPLC and chemometric methods in China

Cinnamomum cassia Presl. is a subtropical plant that is used for food and medicine. Climate change has changed the suitable habitats of medicinal plants, which might have repercussions for the efficacy of herbal remedies. In this study, the potential distribution in each period of Cinnamomum cassia was predicted and the quality in different suitable habitats was evaluated. According to the results, (1) precipitation, temperature, and soil are the primary environmental variables influencing C. cassia distribution. (2) The high-suitable habitats of current climate scenarios were predominantly located in the southern regions (Guangdong and Guangxi etc.) of China, with an area of 706,129.08 km2. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats will increasingly move northward, with a greater concentration south of the Yangtze River, particularly in the 2090s SSP585 scenario, the total area of newly extended suitable habitat reaches 312,963.53 km2. (3) HPLC and FTIR, combined with chemometrics, can be effective methods for identifying different suitable habitats of C. cassia. The content of trans-cinnamaldehyde (0.85%) is significantly higher in the high suitability habitat compared to the medium-low suitability habitat (0.30%). Our findings can offer valuable guidance for the identification of suitable C. cassia cultivation areas in China, as well as for the evaluation of C. cassia resource quality and the rational use of resources in different suitable habitats.