Detecting changes in tobacco product marketplace prominence using social media, advertising, sales, and web traffic data: The example of Puff Bar in the United States tobacco marketplace from 2019 to 2021

Puff Bar, a disposable electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS), was the ENDS brand most commonly used by U.S. youth in 2021. We explored whether Puff Bar's rise in marketplace prominence was detectable through advertising, retail sales, social media, and web traffic data sources. We retrospectively documented potential signals of interest in and uptake of Puff Bar in the United States using metrics based on advertising (Numerator and Comperemedia), retail sales (NielsenIQ), social media (Twitter, via Sprinklr), and web traffic (Similarweb) data from January 2019 to June 2022. We selected metrics based on (1) data availability, (2) potential to graph metric longitudinally, and (3) variability in metric. We graphed metrics and assessed data patterns compared to data for Vuse, a comparator product, and in the context of regulatory events significant to Puff Bar. The number of Twitter posts that contained a Puff Bar term (social media), Puff Bar product sales measured in dollars (sales), and the number of visits to the Puff Bar website (web traffic) exhibited potential for surveilling Puff Bar due to ease of calculation, comprehensibility, and responsiveness to events. Advertising tracked through Numerator and Comperemedia did not appear to capture marketing from Puff Bar's manufacturer or drive change in marketplace prominence. This study demonstrates how quantitative changes in metrics developed using advertising, retail sales, social media, and web traffic data sources detected changes in Puff Bar's marketplace prominence. We conclude that low-effort, scalable, rapid signal detection capabilities can be an important part of a multi-component tobacco surveillance program.