Electricity demand forecasting and power supply planning under carbon neutral targets

The study of electricity demand and power supply planning in accordance with the carbon neutral target is of paramount importance for the attainment of the dual-carbon objective. A system dynamics model that incorporates carbon emissions in order to predict power demand in accordance with the dual-carbon target is proposed. The model incorporates carbon emissions, the output value of three industries, population size, urbanization rate and other factors, and predicts that China's power demand in 2021-2030 will be 1.176 x 1013 kWh. The discrepancy between the model and the prediction of the China Electric Power Research Institute (CEPRI) is 0.3 %. Subsequently, a power supply planning model that considers the dual objectives of comprehensive cost and carbon emission is constructed, with the parameters set based on the current status of China's power supply structure, in conjunction with relevant policies and future development trends. The model is ultimately solved using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) coupled entropy weight Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method, and the optimal compromise is determined on the Pareto frontier. The total cost of adopting the power structure proposed in this paper is estimated to be approximately RMB 6.86 trillion, with a corresponding CO2 emission of 4.529 billion tons. It is projected that the proportion of non-fossil energy sources in the installed capacity will reach 61.13% by 2030, comprising 1.214 billion kW of wind and photovoltaic, 412 million kW of hydroelectricity, and 220 million kW of nuclear power. The findings of this study can inform the future development of China's power industry, particularly with regard to the evolution of its energy structure and the refinement of its low-carbon transition pathway.