The Effect of Network Delay and Contagion on Mobile Banking Users: A Dynamical Analysis

This paper analyses how network contagion affects the acceptance or rejection of mobile banking, emphasizing the risk of contagion that hinders the growth of users among bank clients. As a research method, a mathematical model based on the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered framework is used within a nonlinear dynamic system with a distributed time delay and the optimal control strategy. The approach aims to find the behaviour dynamics of mobile banking users, non-users, and undecided ones. Our model adds value to the existing literature by employing a qualitative dynamic analysis, as opposed to other studies that study contagion empirically. The steady states and their conditions for stability are found, and the critical value for time delay causing oscillatory is determined. The optimal control strategies are identified to enlarge the number of mobile banking users and decrease the number of non-users. Numerical simulations support the theoretical findings. The research has practical implications given that the model predicts mobile banking user behaviour in assisting policy decision-making and addresses the possible policy measures that aim to increase the number of mobile banking users. The conclusions suggest that financial inclusion can contribute to the expansion of mobile banking users.