An Urban Climate Simulation Model with Climate Change Scenarios

This study developed a climate simulation model that can analyze air temperature variations according to urban spatial characteristics and climate change scenarios. It was applied to multiple scales of the Urban Thermal Environment and Planning system (UTEMP) to analyze future air temperatures. The maximum and minimum air temperatures for each date of the RCP scenario were investigated. The background air temperature value for the climate simulation model was set considering the differences between the measured air temperature of AWS (present time) and the investigated air temperature in the climate change scenario. The future air temperatures were analyzed through the Lagrangian particle dispersion algorithm. The air temperatures of Seogyo-dong area, Seoul in the years 2050 and 2100 were analyzed at 10mx10m spatial resolution and the air temperature differences between present and future were also investigated. The analysis showed that the future temperature variations were identified according to urban spatial characteristics including topography, land cover, and development density. The daily average air temperature differences between RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were about 2.24 degrees in 2050, but by 2100, the temperature difference increased to 3.69 degrees. The developed climate simulation models based on climate change scenarios provide higher resolution analysis results on how urban spatial characteristics affects urban air temperature with future climate change trends. Such a climate simulation model could be utilized as a planning-design tool to improve the urban thermal environment in the long term.