Personalized multifactorial risk assessment in neoadjuvant-treated breast carcinoma

Purpose Due to biological heterogeneity of breast carcinoma, predicting the individual response to neoadjuvant treatment (NAT) is complex. Consequently, there are no comprehensive, generally accepted practices to guide post-treatment follow-up. We present clinical and histopathological criteria to advance the prediction of disease outcome in NA-treated breast cancer. Methods A retrospective consecutive cohort of 257 NA-treated Finnish breast cancer patients with up to 13-year follow-up and the corresponding tissue samples of pre- and post-NAT breast and metastatic specimen were evaluated for prognostic impacts. All relevant clinical and biomarker characteristics potentially correlated with tumor response to NAT, course of disease, or outcome of breast cancer were included in the statistical analyses. Results The results highlight the intensified characterization of distinguished prognostic factors and previously overlooked histological features, e.g., mitotic and apoptotic activity. Particularly, decreased PR indicated 3.8-fold (CI 1.9-7.4, p = 0.0001) mortality risk, and a > 10.5-year shorter survival for the majority, > 75% of patients (Q1). Clinically applicable prognostic factors both preceding and following NAT were identified and compiled into heat maps to quantify mortality and recurrence risks. Combinations of risk factors for aggressive disease were exemplified as an interactive tool (bcnatreccalc.utu.fi) to illustrate the spectrum of disease outcomes. Conclusion The results emphasize the value of comprehensive evaluation of conventional patient and biomarker characteristics, especially concerning re-assessment of biomarkers, risk-adapted surveillance, and personalized treatment strategies. Future personalized NA-treatment strategies might benefit from models combining risk-adapted surveillance data and post-NAT re-assessed biomarkers.