Spatial analysis of potential natural vegetation and habitat suitability changes on the Loess Plateau using high-resolution climate data and LPJ-GUESS model

This study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology on the Loess Plateau and its relationship with climate variables using NDVI data from NASA AVHRR spanning from 1982 to 2011. The Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) method was applied to process the NDVI data, extracting the Start of Growing Season (SOS) and End of Growing Season (EOS) dates. Partial correlation analysis was used to investigate the interactions between phenology and climate factors such as temperature and precipitation. The results show that, from 2001 to 2018, the SOS exhibited a significant advancing trend, while the EOS showed a general delay, particularly influenced by rising spring temperatures and increased precipitation from previous seasons. Spatial analysis revealed that the advancement of SOS was more pronounced in warmer regions, such as the warm temperate grassland and forest-steppe areas. Furthermore, the study highlights how climate change has impacted the relationship between vegetation phenology and hydrological cycles, affecting soil erosion and carbon storage. By analyzing the correlations between phenological shifts and climate factors, this research provides valuable insights for ecological restoration strategies on the Loess Plateau, emphasizing the critical role of climate adaptation management in enhancing ecosystem resilience.