Economic effect of China’s carbon neutrality target under shared socioeconomic pathways

Economic feasibility is crucial for achieving the carbon neutrality target. However, current integrated assessments often underestimate the economic impacts of mitigation policies due to the lack of consideration of their economic benefits. This study integrates a warming-labour productivity model with a typical integrated assessment model using shared socioeconomic pathways. It simulates China’s economic development and carbon emission levels under both baseline and carbon-neutral policy scenarios, evaluating the economic costs and benefits of emission reduction policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality. These findings reveal the following: (1) The economic costs of emission reduction policies are projected to peak between 2050 and 2060, ranging from 0.41% to 9.37% of total GDP in the baseline scenario, primarily due to increased energy prices and R&D investments. These costs are expected to decline rapidly after 2070. (2) China’s carbon-neutral policies will mitigate global warming, with the economic benefits of mitigation projected to reach 5.65% to 17.24% of China’s total GDP by 2100. (3) Low-carbon scenarios SSP1 and SSP4 could significantly reduce initial economic costs and advance the onset of net economic gains to 2060. This integrated assessment confirms that China’s carbon neutrality target offers substantial net economic benefits in the long term. To minimize initial economic costs, efforts should focus on enhancing consumption-side transitions, upgrading low-carbon technologies, and adopting new energy sources.