Evaluation of the effect of the water-energy nexus on the performance of the water-energy supply system

In this study, the water-energy nexus is investigated throughout coupling the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) models under the climate change effects in the Marun basin, Iran. For this purpose, first, the climate change effects on water resources and consumption nodes are calculated under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios from the fifth report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Artificial neural network (ANN) is used to model river inflow and Cropwat model is used for agricultural water demand in future time (2015–2040). In the next step, water system is modeled in WEAP and energy system is modeled in LEAP. Then, three water-energy nexus scenarios include (1) calculating the actual hydropower generation capacity in LEAP model (W-E-N1), (2) water-energy nexus evaluation indexes in the WEAP model (W-E-N2), and (3) changes in the electricity consumption intensity in the LEAP model (W-E-N3) are modeled under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The results of W-E-N1 scenario show that the actual hydropower generation capacity with water-energy nexus is reduced by 78%, 89%, and 91%, respectively, compared to no water-energy nexus under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results of W-E-N2 show that the hydropower generation reliability index will be reduced by 19%, 31%, and 13%, respectively under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 compared no water-energy nexus. The results of W-E-N3 scenario show that the electricity consumption intensity will increase considering the electricity required for water transferring to demand sites. The results of the present study show that the water-energy nexus will lead to more accurate results and, as a result, more realistic planning for water and energy resources. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.