Dynamic simulation modeling for sustainable water management with climate change in a semi-arid environment

Climate change is a significant challenge for sustainable water management in arid and semi-arid environments. The practical importance of the study lies in its use of system dynamics (SD) methodology for sustainable water management in semi-arid regions under climate change. This approach could provide a valuable tool for policy makers and stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on irrigation water withdrawals (IWW) in the southeast New Mexico (SENM), USA, and to evaluate some adaptation practices such as improving irrigation efficiency and changing cultivation patterns. By evaluating the effectiveness of these practices in reducing IWW, this study may also contribute to improving the resilience of water systems under climate change. The study utilized the SENM model, which is based on SD modeling. The model assesses the impacts of climate change impacts and proposed adaptation practices on IWW, aiming to enhance our understanding of their trends and behavior over the simulation period. Eight dynamic simulations were conducted to analyze and evaluate the performance of IWW reduction over the time span from 2000 to 2100. The model simulation results indicate that climate change will lead to increased IWW. The annual IWW have increased by an average of 1.18 % to 1.97 % due to climate change. A range of IWW reductions from 3 % to 57 % was associated with different combinations of improved conveyance and field irrigation efficiencies and changes in crop-cultivated areas that need significant amounts of irrigation water. The practices aimed at reducing the larger irrigated crop areas were most effective in decreasing IWW. Changing the cultivation pattern has a greater impact on IWW than improving irrigation efficiency practices alone. Decreasing cultivated areas reduced IWW by an average of about 42 %, and improving irrigation efficiency reduced them by an average of 12 %. However, combining both approaches result in the greatest net reduction in IWW. The combined practices of cropping and irrigation management are associated with greatly reduced IWW by an overall average reduction of 52 %. The study also shows that SD modeling enhances our understanding and evaluation of climate change's impact on water resources in the SENM.