Short-term Residential Load Forecasting Based on Dynamic Association Graph Attention Networks for Virtual Power Plant

被引：0
|
作者：
Zhang, Junkai [1 ]
Hu, Xuguang [1 ]
Liu, Yaobo [1 ]
Xu, Qing [1 ]
Ma, Dazhong [1 ]
Sun, Qiuye [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang,110819, China
来源：
Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems | 2024年 / 48卷 / 21期
关键词：
Association graph - Attention mechanisms - Dynamic association graph - Graph neural networks - Hybrid correlation - Residential loads - Short term load forecasting - Temporal graph attention mechanism - Temporal graphs - Virtual power plants;
D O I：
10.7500/AEPS20240328002
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Short-term residential load forecasting can provide real-time and flexible power demand information for virtual power plants, which is helpful for virtual power plants to realize efficient utilization of energy and optimize electricity market transactions. With the increasing prominence of correlation among residential loads, traditional forecasting methods, which primarily rely on time-series forecasting based on individual residential historical load, fail to satisfy the comprehensive demands for load interconnectivity in large-scale virtual power plant. Based on this, a short-term residential load forecasting method based on dynamic association graph attention networks for the virtual power plant is proposed. Firstly, a hybrid correlation analysis method is proposed to describe the linear and nonlinear relationship between residential loads, and a weight pruning threshold mechanism is further proposed to derive the hybrid correlation matrix of residential loads. Secondly, a dynamic association graph structure is constructed based on the hybrid correlation matrix, and a temporal graph attention mechanism is proposed to deeply learn the spatial-temporal association characteristics of residential loads, achieving the objective of short-term residential load forecasting. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by actual residential load data from a specific region. © 2024 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：120 / 128
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