Real-time air traffic flow management: expectations and probabilities of delay

Air traffic flow management is carried out with a view to maintaining smooth aircraft traffic. Real-time air traffic flow control is to carry out the air traffic flow control responsive to a real situation in real time by express use of the present situation of the desired terminal region and the radar information. With a view to such real-time air traffic flow management, this paper derives equations for the holding delay time expectation value of aircraft requesting take-off, the delay time expectation value within the terminal, holding generating probability, delay generating probability in the terminal, and the flight delay generating probability. If in the future any departure-regulating procedure for reducing the flight delay time of the aircraft requesting take-off is developed based on the values found from these equations, it becomes possible to carry out the air traffic flow management adaptively to a real situation.