QUANTITATIVE APPLICATION OF ICE CLIMATE DATA TO WINTER NAVIGATION STUDIES.

In a study of the feasibility of developing a marine terminal at Grande Ile, Quebec, in the St. Lawrence Estuary, the economic influence of winter ice conditions on shipping schedules was estimated. Passage time statistics were estimated by numerical simulation of the passage of vessels from the Atlantic Ocean to this site for the full range of conditions which have been observed. By these calculations the severity of ice conditions was experessed in the terms of delay. The distribution of risk of delay over the winter season and the probabilities of total delay affecting cargo inventories were derived. A program of data gathering to improve the empirical basis of the speed loss estimate is suggested.