Two basins show Hubbert's method underestimates future oil production

The Hubbert method was systematically and rigorously tested for predicting future oil production. Specifically, the method was applied to two major US oil-producing basins: the San Joaquin Valley in California and the Permian Basin in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The method was applied to each of these basins as of three points in time: 1964, 1982, and 2000. Fundamental components of the method were used to predict production to 2020 for each basin from each of these three years. The predictions were compared with actual production through 2004. The fundamental components of the Hubbert method examined for each basin as of each year are annual discoveries, annual production, and the cumulative discovery curve. Analysis of the data revealed that the method underestimated recovery in the two basins.