On trends and rhythms in scientific and technological knowledge evolution: A quantitative analysis

The evolutionary character of science and technology and their social implications are tracked down by studying five centuries long time series encompassing both the most impacting published scientific works and recorded technological inventions and a 125 years long time series of major granted patents. Using a novel procedure (Miranda and Lima, 2010a, 2010b), typical Kuznets economic cycles (15-25 years) are shown to be modulating the multi-logistic modelling-to-data corresponding residuals series, suggesting that changes and investments in infrastructure are essential driving motors for the observed data. Amidst a complex of components, knowledge evolution emerges as a major one in providing the overall force that catalyses the ensuing basic socially impacting changes. Our results are also discussed under the views of a world system theoretical framework where knowledge evolution, technological intelligence and innovation join together into a feedback system that influenced decision-making towards socio-economic policies that enhanced human welfare evolution throughout centuries. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.