Utilizing machine learning models to grasp water quality dynamic changes in lake eutrophication through phytoplankton parameters

Phytoplankton serve as vital indicators of eutrophication levels. However, relying solely on phytoplankton parameters, such as chlorophyll-a, limits our comprehensive understanding of the intricate eutrophication conditions in natural lakes, particularly in terms of timely analysis of changes in limiting nutrients and their concentrations. This study presents machine learning (ML) models for predicting and identifying lake eutrophication. Five tree-based ML models were developed using the latest data on hydrological, water quality, and meteorological parameters obtained high accuracy in predicting the total nitrogen/total phosphorus ratio (TN/TP) (R2 = 0.88; RMSE = 24.60; MAPE = 26.14%). Analysis of the TN/TP ratio and output eigenvalue weight revealed that phosphorus plays a crucial role in eutrophication, probably because of the low-flow and deep-water characteristics of the basin. Furthermore, the light gradient boosting machine model exhibited outstanding performance and high accuracy in predicting phytoplankton parameters, especially the Shannon index (H′) (R2 = 0.92; RMSE = 0.11; MAPE = 4.95%). The mesotrophic classification of the Huating Lake determined using the H′ threshold, coincided with the findings from the H′ analysis. Future research should cover a wider range of pollution sources and spatiotemporal dimensions to further validate our findings. Overall, this study highlights the potential of incorporating the TN/TP ratio and phytoplankton parameters into ML techniques for effective monitoring and management of environmental conditions. © Higher Education Press 2025.